Conditions and Mechanisms Linking Climate Change to Violent Conflict
School of Geography
221 Bouverie Street
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Empirical evidence of the effect of climate change on violent conflict is growing but continues to be mixed and thus generally unsatisfactory from an analytical point of view. While there is agreement of the need to explore the ways in which environmental consequences of climate change influence conflict patterns, efforts to deal with the context and complexity of the linkage remain mostly ad hoc, focusing either on structural conditions for violent conflict or the dynamic analysis of the mechanisms at work in the processes leading to outbreaks of violence. Both approaches have merits and limitations, for ex post explanations as well as future projections of the consequences of climate change for violent conflict and the possibility to shape the linkage through policy interventions. Combinations of structural conditions and process mechanisms are promising but need to be tailored to specific research questions.
The presentation will present suggestions for combinations of conditions and mechanisms on various levels of abstraction focusing on the disaster- migration – armed conflict nexus and the options for policy interventions influencing the linkages.